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Analysts Predict 13 Million iPhones Sold in Q4 2010

Two days ago Fortune polled a group of analysts asking for predictions about the numbers of iPads sold by Apple in Q4 2010 - whose results will be announced on October 18th during the usual earnings call. Predictions ranged from 3.80 million units sold (Brian Marshall) to 6 million units (Leitao, Apple Finance Board). Today Fortune posted the results of another poll, this time about the iPhone 4.

Analysts are predicting blockbuster sales for the iPhone 4 despite Verizon rumors, Android’s growing success and the whole Antennagate story. In fact, they believe Apple sold at least 10 million units (Tavis McCourt) - with a record of 13 million (Horace Dediu, Asymco). In Q3 2010 Apple sold 8.4 million iPhones, but the iPhone 4 went on sale 4 days before the end of the quarter.

Of all its products, none is more important to Apple’s bottom line than its smartphone, which generated $5.4 billion in fiscal Q3 – 40% of the company’s total revenue. The iPhone 4, launched three days before the end of that quarter, has been in short supply ever since, making it trickier than usual for analysts trying to estimate sales in advance of Apple’s quarterly earnings report.

We’ll know the truth in 11 days.

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