Feb
4
2012

Focusing On iPads

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The latest report from AppleInsider claims that, after a meeting with CEO Tim Cook and CFO Peter Oppenheimer, Citi analyst Richard Gardner left with the impression that Apple is focusing on iPads, leaving little or no possibility for an ARM-based MacBook Air, which was previously rumored.

Apple doesn’t refer to iPad as a PC, but as a “post-PC device,” leaving the ARM-based tablet distinct from the company’s Intel-based Macs. Gardner further indicated the meeting dispelled the notion that Apple might introduce ARM-based Macs, countering rumors that a new MacBook Air featuring an ARM processor might appear sometime soon.

Gardner cited Cook as alluding to “rapid innovation on the iOS platform” that will “significantly broaden the use case for tablets,” and stated he “walked away from this meeting with the impression that Apple feels iPad satisfies—or will soon satisfy—the needs of those who might have been interested in such a product” as an ARM-based MacBook Air.

The rumors of Apple switching from Intel to ARM-based architectures on Macs left many wondering when they first surfaced online. And whilst it wouldn’t be a surprise to know that Apple has at least tested A5-based MacBook Airs and other sorts of ARM CPUs for portables — of course a company like Apple wants to experiment with as many hardware alternatives as possible — many debated whether it would make sense for the company to switch in the near future, when quad-core ARM processors are seemingly ready for the next-generation of iOS devices.

That Apple doesn’t believe an ARM-based MacBook Air — or, as the competitors would call it, an ARM Ultrabook — would be needed on the market isn’t a surprise, either. Assuming there is a market for users who want a low-power, battery life efficient portable machine in the range of 11″ and 13″ — a machine that, in theory, should be used for tasks such as word processing, lightweight image editing, browsing, and email — Apple believes that market can be satisfied — or will be “soon” satisfied as AppleInsider writes — by the iPad.

From a user’s standpoint, I think Apple’s reasoning here is that, ultimately, someone who’s seeking an 11-inch or even 13-inch machine with the technological perks of the iPad would be better off with an iPad, which is lighter, more portable, and has a richer selection of apps (from Apple’s perspective in looking at simple App Store numbers). There are edge cases, such as people who would strongly argue against iOS’ virtual keyboard, but I believe what Tim Cook is saying here — again, at least according to AppleInsider — is that the hypothetical market for an ARM MacBook Air should just settle with an iPad, as it’s a versatile, innovative machine that will get more feature soon. I don’t always want to look much into reports about interviews out of their original context, but if that “soon” is to be believed, I wouldn’t mind seeing more productivity-oriented software from Apple at the next iPad event — apps such as Aperture and, who knows, maybe even a portable programming suite would be perfect to further showcase the iPad’s capabilities as a “real” PC.

More importantly, Gardner’s “impression” that Apple feels satisfied with the iPad is also backed up by the numbers: in the past quarter alone, Apple sold over 15 million iPads, and “only” 5.2 million Macs. In the amount of time that Apple should spend transitioning a Mac product (the MacBook Air) to a new CPU architecture and getting developers to begin supporting this new “hybrid” machine, the company could easily sell another 20 million iPads. That’s not to say Apple will never switch to ARM (never is a dangerous word) on the desktop and that they haven’t considered it, but I’ve never believed it could happen in a short period of time as some of the early rumors claimed.

Looking at the first quarters of iPad sales and reception, I’d say Tim Cook is right to be focusing on iPads.

Sep
5
2011

The “Apple TV Set”

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Jean-Louis Gassée notes how the “Apple television” that’s been long rumored among Apple fans and the tech press will have to face two problems: architecture and implementation.

As many imagined, the device would look something like this:

Imagine a true plug-and-play experience. One set with only two wires: power and the cable TV coax. Turn it on, assert your Apple ID credentials and you’re in business.

But then it would come down to getting cable channels into the set:

Large carriers, such as Comcast, are known as Multiple System Operators, MSOs, with an emphasis on the “M”. They’re a patchwork of acquired systems that have never needed to be compatible. This would either restrict the TV set to a small number of carriers, or make the product more complicated and prone to more bugs — and more field tech visits.

And on top of that, Apple would have to solve the problem of easily troubleshooting a 50-inch screen, or simply figure out a way to get people to upgrade to newer models of “Apple TV set” every couple of years:

We’re willing to upgrade our laptops, smartphones, and tablets every year or two because Moore’s Law keeps improving the CPU and other electronics at the rapid rate that made the computer industry’s fortunes. An integrated Apple TV set wouldn’t benefit from better electronics as naturally as an iPhone does…unless, of course, the tiny iOS computer is implemented as an easily accessible plug-in module.

I’d argue that the television market is so variegate, and potentially lucrative, that there’s more to figure out and correctly implement than U.S. cable providers and MSOs. Looking at Apple now, it’s hard to see a company willing to disrupt a market with a brand new, premium device…available exclusively in the United States. Even the Apple TV, “not part of the stool” and still considered a hobby, was released in the United States and Europe last year. Then look at the iPhone. It took almost four years to get there, but as it turns out the majority of profits now come from regions outside Americas (and iPhone is “key driver” of Apple’s revenue in Greater China — more context here and here).

The problem with the Apple TV set isn’t an “American cable company” (you name it) — it’s the television market as a whole. If we take in account the segments and population that can afford an HDTV nowadays — assuming it falls somewhere in between the $500 – $3000 range — it’s easy to see how Apple will have to make a product that ultimately just works with any television content provider in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Why would they ignore those markets?

There are greater issues to solve and differences to consider in the international TV market. Just a few examples: Italy still switching from analog to digital TV, satellite’s popularity in many areas of Europe, or some ISPs’ offerings with Internet/ TV packages. Supposedly, Apple will have to come up with a solution to work around these, in several countries. Italy may not be Apple’s finest source of revenue, but Europe/Japan/Asia-Pacific combined made for $14.94 billions of revenue in Q3 2011. I’m just assuming some of these Apple customers would also be interested in a TV set from Apple.

We don’t know what Apple has in mind, we can speculate on the company’s margins for such a device — we can only imagine that there is a market to disrupt because the current television sets are too difficult to configure and troubleshoot, with different user experiences and fragmented interfaces, store fronts, or even remotes.

I believe the question isn’t what will the TV set from Apple look like, as we can make a pretty accurate guess about that. Rather, I’d speculate on how many markets Apple is willing to enter at once, and its timing.

US carrier AT&T today reported its second-quarter financial results, which broadly speaking has seen some strong growth. The company’s consolidated revenues were up $680 million (2.2%) to $31.5 billion year-over-year and AT&T added a total of 1.1 million new subscribers during the quarter.

AT&T also saw its best ever second quarter for smartphone sales, which were up 43% year-over-year with a total of 5.6 million smartphones sold. The loss of iPhone exclusivity doesn’t seem to have affected AT&T too much because 3.6 million (or 64%) of all smartphones sold were iPhones, which is identical to last quarter in which AT&T sold 3.6 million. To give that figure some perspective, of all iPhones sold in the last quarter (globally), AT&T sold 17% of them. Also interesting is that a quarter of the iPhones sold by AT&T were to new subscribers.

Jump the break for AT&T’s full press release on their earnings.

[Via Boy Genius Report, Asymco]

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DigiTimes is today reporting that industry sources are expecting Apple to become the number one portable PC vendor globally. Hewlett-Packard (HP) is currently the number one vendor for portable PCs, but if tablets are included in the calculation, Apple will far surpass HP in 2012.

According to the sources, Apple is expected to ship 60 million iPads in 2012, accounting for 75% of all tablet shipments, which are expected to hit 80 million units in 2012. Meanwhile Apple’s MacBook line is expected to total 15 million units in 2012, bringing a total of 75 million units of portable PCs if tablets are included.

HP will continue to increase their portable PC shipments in 2012 but would be unlikely to match the success of Apple, instead shipping between 45-50 million portable PCs. Shipments of HP tablets aren’t expected to add much to this total, leaving Apple to ship roughly 20-30 million more units of portable PCs.

[Via DigiTimes]

In a survey based on the results of a poll of an unspecified number of “Web users” over the last week, Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney says Apple’s iTunes Store has roughly 10% of market share for online video. In the poll, the usual suspects are mentioned by users: YouTube leads with 69.2%, and surprisingly enough Facebook comes at #2 with 27.1%, leaving Netflix in the third spot with 24.5%. However, as the analyst notes, if you’re paying to watch web video, you’re using Netflix; neither YouTube or Facebook have premium subscriptions for videos in place, although Google’s video platform has tried several times in the past to expand to other possible profitable segments like live streams and movie rentals. However, the standard YouTube experience remains free and users are able to upload high-quality, HD videos without restrictions of sorts. These videos are then consumed on YouTube.com or connected devices such as the iPhone, iPad, Apple TV and Android handsets, thus making YouTube the leader of online video, without a price.

The “Hulu” seen in the graph above sits right below Netflix, but it’s worth mentioning that most of its visits come from free subscribers, and not Hulu Plus accounts. Similarly, Apple’s iTunes at 9.8% doesn’t include streaming options like its competitors — unless we consider the second-generation Apple TV as part of the reported 9.8% market share, but it’s unclear how many Apple TV units Apple sold since September 2010, and it’s also not clear which devices the users polled by Mahaney own. Apple was rumored to be planning an expansion in web video with the launch of a Netflix-like service, an Internet-connected television and a massive upgrade for iTunes video storage, though recent announcements at WWDC put the focus on iCloud as a delivery platform for iOS devices, rather than a video service. [via All Things Digital]

Among the 5000 developers crowding Apple’s WWDC 2011 this year, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster was on the scene, surveying a small pool developers on platform related questions. Munster’s sample of 45 participants consisted of only iOS developers, who’d naturally favor Apple’s development platforms over Microsoft or RIM. The results of the survey were published in a note to clients that compared these 45 responses to 20 he gathered in 2008, when the iPad and Android markets were non-existant. Of the developers sampled, Munster found that the pool of iOS developers typically favored smartphone development over desktop development, and that iOS was best for monetization. Philip Elmer-DeWitt highlights some of the findings:

  • Only 7% are also developing apps for the Mac, down from 50% in 2008.
  • Nearly half (47%) write apps for Android, 36% for Research in Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry, 13% for Microsoft (MSFT) Windows Phone 7 and 7% for Hewlett-Packard’s (HPQ) WebOS.
  • Asked which platform had the highest potential for future growth, none mentioned the BlackBerry, WebOS or Nokia’s (NOK) Symbian.
  • Although 100% preferred iOS for ease of development and monetization, they did have some complaints, chief among them Apple’s “strict limitations” (38%) and the App Store approval process (11%).

Lion, iOS 5, and Apple’s iCloud were hot topics of WWDC 2011 this year, and while Munster only surveyed a handful of developers, there’s a lot to be excited about for both Mac and iPhone development. Scott Forstall announced on stage that iOS development in particular is still a hot market with over 200 million iOS devices sold. iOS’ installed base is leading the market at 44%, compared to 28% for Android and 19% for RIM. Total, Apple has paid developers $2.5 million dollars for apps marketed in the App Store.

Desktop development is still strong, as showcased in Apple’s Design Awards this year, featuring amazing apps like Pixelmator and Capo. Many developers are going to be updating or releasing new versions of theirs apps for Lion through the Mac App Store, and if Reeder is any indication, I have a feeling Mac development is as strong as it’s ever been. Survey results have been posted after the break.

[via Fortune Tech]

image via Aaron Ash

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As reported by John Paczkowski at All Things Digital, according to Apple executives the number of mobile operators carrying the iPhone worldwide has increased to 200, from 186 at the end of March. The expansion, teased by COO Tim Cook in late February alongside the possibility of “lower priced offerings” and other prepaid market offers, is noteworthy for Apple, but still a relatively low figure when compared to RIM’s 500+ carriers selling BlackBerry devices.

Aggressive expansion, actually. Since the end of the March quarter, Apple has expanded the number of iPhone carriers to 200 from 186, according to company executives.

So 14 new customer bases in which to dip, further juicing sales of the device.

Following speculation of low iPhone sales in Q3 2011 due to the rumored lack of a hardware refresh in June (being the WWDC focused on software-related announcements such as iOS 5 and iCloud) with a new iPhone likely coming out this Fall, analysts and investors seem to believe that Apple’s iPhone sales will manage to meet expectations thanks to the release of the white iPhone 4 and the aforementioned carrier expansion. For instance, the iPhone 4 launched in India two weeks ago after an 11-month wait. Apple is also expected to introduce the iPhone 4 on more international CDMA networks to expand into a new market segment, though as of today the CDMA iPhone 4 is only available on Verizon Wireless’ US network.

Apple has continued making gains in the US mobile and smartphone market according to the latest comScore ‘Mobile Subscriber Market Share’. Surpassing RIM, Apple jumped to being the fourth largest OEM with a share of 8.3% of the US market. Samsung remains number one with 24.5% of the market, followed by LG and Motorola.

In terms of smartphone operating systems in the US, Google’s Android leads the pack with 36.4% of the market, an increase of 5.2 percentage points over the three month period. Whilst Apple’s iOS, is still in a solid second place, and grew its share by 1.3 percentage points. RIM continues its slide, falling another 4.7 percentage points and Microsoft also managed to see its market share fall by 1.3 percentage points.

Meanwhile in terms of usage, more US consumers ar using web browsers (up 2.1 percentage points), downloading applications (up 2.4 percentage points), playing games (up 2.5 percentage points) and using social networks or accessing blogs (up 2.7 percentage points).

[Via comScore]

In a report by Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope, Tim Cook speaks some pretty bold words about the future of the tablet market and the PC market. Speaking with Shope, he says “he sees no reason why the tablet market shouldn’t eclipse the PC market over the next several years”.

Shope notes that Apple, in the statement is more “overtly optimistic” on the long-term prospects of the platform than they have in the past. In the report itself, Shope suggests that Apple will sell 8.1 million iPads in the June quarter, compared to last year it would be 72% increase.

Apple executives were also touting the fact the iPhone is now officially available from 200 carriers worldwide, and that ten years since opening, its retail stores are doing well.

[Via BusinessInsider]